Jose Chajon

The Market

2011-09-22T12:16:00.001-07:00

The market is what it is: It is neither good or bad, and it is supossed to reflect supply and demand. However, you need to ponder a little bit in order to recognize when the market is being manipulated, and in the case of the US and European markets, how certain trends are induced by government action or inaction.

Keep your eye on the market, as it is a reflector as well as a predictor of certain trends. You cannot live in a bubble and pretend to ignore that the market will not have an effect on your lifestyle

I dont think this can be fixed with QE3

2011-08-04T19:11:00.000-07:00

I dont think throwing money from a reduced budget helicopter will fix this.

I think the middle class has to be saved. There is no gain by buying useless cheap stuff inflating the trade inbalance. Tariffs are no solution either.

Read my lips: Higher taxes are coming, but they are not necessarily the solution. People have to start earning their living by producing stuff and making real GDP gains.

However, problems bring opportunities. This is a real chance to take a good look on how to work for a brighter future by using ingenuity and innovation with a little elbow grease.

Bust a Deal face the wheel !

2011-07-28T17:18:00.000-07:00

No deal and the markets are meandering across the valley of uncertainty...

Never fear QE3 is here. After all the smoke and fog dissipates we are going to be left with plenty of rain thanks to Helicopter Ben.

For now it is just a game of chicken as the neon swan rears its big uggly head.

Internet Bubble 2.0

2011-05-20T16:56:00.000-07:00

Well, the idea is excellent, lets see if the earnings compensate the investors who doubled their money on the best ipo of web 2.0 ideas to date.

It would be kind of tricky to ponder how to trade this one, maybe it is the next google or maybe something else

2010-09-07T21:04:00.000-07:00

We can have Icons or we can have beheaded Icons!

We can also have both!

Going down again??

2010-09-07T21:03:00.001-07:00

Two years from the Lehman downfall and still no sign of transparency or good judgment by the fed.
Lets see how we get out of this one!!

ad infinitum

2010-08-07T17:50:00.000-07:00

Double dip or another bull run?
The general consensus of the business media is a bull run.
Lets hope they are right or we are in for a brutal reality check, coming soon to a worker near you....

The market does what it does... until it is manipulated

2009-06-23T10:13:00.000-07:00

June is about to go, and we have not seen the beginning of the downward slope. Volume has been kind of low as it usually is this time of year. But then again, the market does what it wants to do, until it is manipulated.
You hear about reason, risk control/management and having an edge before trading, but how can you do that when government officials bang the gong and change the rules?
now it becomes confusing as the VIX goes up, the dollar weakens and volume is thin.
Commodities and Energy have been rewarding for short term traders, lets see if the trend continues.

Somewhere I read that 2009 looks like a mirror image of 2008. It so, then the market should tank in the summer pick up again in August and tank in September...

A very interesting view of the Past

2009-05-12T21:31:00.000-07:00

We have to look to the past if we want to make a feeble attempt to babble about the future.

Although it is extremely radical, the following article caught my eye:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/breakingviewscom/5312628/Stock-market-optimists-need-to-read-a-history-of-the-Great-Depression.html

The Bernanke Put or the Start of the New "Bull"

2009-05-12T21:19:00.000-07:00

The market keeps going up, and the shorts are destroyed....
The talking heads are calling it the "start" of the "new bull"

I just have a question is it all bull?

Never consider anything you read in a blog or website as investment advice, make your own decisions and lose money on your own *(so you dont have anyone to blame later)
9:11 PM

Wrong about the Market

2009-05-09T00:12:00.000-07:00

Well, almost a month later, and the market is still powering forward.
The market can do anything and it does. I was very wrong and did not take into account the powers that be, the ppt, the stimulus "package" and the lobbying capacity of the banks to raise stock prices so they can offer attractive additional offerings and raise capital.
There has been so much manipulation that it is almost impossible for the small guy (read dumb money) to make any cash. The "smart money" (read GS and pals) is still making money and now refers to the initial help to the biggies as the "Paulson Panic".
This is not a rant, just analyze if anything has fundamentally improved in the last month and a half justifying the 30% rally.
We are currently overbought and getting more so by the day. As I read somewhere, it seems like "orderly markets can only go up", that is why the powers that be are about to put rules against the evil shorts.....

A mid eighties song keeps popping up in my mind: "Ship of Fools" by World Party. Somewhere along the song, the lead singer chants: You will pay tomorrow...

Tomorrow is guaranteed to no one.

2009-04-07T18:07:00.000-07:00

The market made me crazy. Let us see: We had a rally from November, we tanked on March and now we are up 25 %.
After four straight weeks of gains we get a couple of down days and the talking heads are pumping the bulls.
Who is right? What is wrong? To tell you the truth I think NOBODY KNOWS! Not that I know anything, but I am sure that it would be very hard for anyone to foresee the future AND TALK ABOUT IT IN PUBLIC.

The market really is at a crossroad: My gut feeling is: we go for the lows again.

After a long hiatus and billions of stimulus later...

2009-03-28T23:08:00.000-07:00

I abandoned writing about the upcoming recession months ago, as you can see in the previous post.
A lot of uncertainty has been with us, and will be for a long time, and now in the midst of a bear market rally I feel compelled to write about the upcoming hyperinflation.
A lot of money has been thrown at the banks and financial institutions, but still, nobody know who is right.... To me, nothing has changed, and a lot of empty words and promises have been spoken.
Either these guys are going to obliterate capitalism from the face of the earth, or they will be hailed forever as the saviours of capitalism by way of socialism...
Take your pick, hold your breadth for a moment and think: How are they going to achieve it / promote it and what is going to be the state of the economy in a year from now....

I wish for ignorance or for a crystal ball....

Pray for Rain

2009-01-15T15:56:00.000-08:00

Well, I have been speechless for months, we saw a mini-crash, we saw a Santa Rally, and we either are seeing a vicious bear market rally or the beginnng of a real and cruel (extended) bear market...

Some will say that the snapper rally that we had the opportunity to witness today was the result of the second TARP infusion, some will say there is a super duper plunge protection team .... and the talking heads are going to start babbling about great buying opportunities....

I just wish I had a crystal ball.

Waiting for the "Deal of the Century"

2008-09-25T09:32:00.000-07:00

Still waiting for the beginning of the Super Bailout. The market is getting crazier by the hour.

There is some selling pressure by the plan designers similar to that of used car salesmen.

Does it seem funny that the deadline for announcements is Sunday previous to the Asian market open....

Such is the way of the global economy....

Time to reflect on the consequences

2008-09-22T13:08:00.000-07:00

All the events in the previous two weeks have to lead us into reflection.

If we are to ignore all the excess and all the exhuberance and all the irrationality, we are certainly doomed.

As of today, supossedly there are no investment banks, Everybody is counting on the Paulson-Bernanke Put, and Goldilocks is supposed to make a fantastic comeback...

These are interesting times for sure; however, we have to ponder a little bit on the consequences of all of these actions. We also should never forget, executive bonuses, dark pool trading and all the leverage used by the former investment bankers, that are now "protected" by a short selling ban.

The big question is "What if the shorts are right?".

As I read in a popular site minyanville.com

What if you shoot the devil in the back and miss....

Market Manipulation and Disarrray

2008-09-01T15:48:00.000-07:00

There are so many things to think about the current markets:

Oil is falling since we are in an election year, after November all bets are off!
The financial sector is on life support after all the maneuvers of Hank, Ben and Tim.
The Fed is between a rock and a hard place as it cannot rise rates.
These are truly interesting times! I just wish I had more time to study and try to comprehend the future impact and implications of all of these moves.
September and October are not generally good months for the Market.
We just have to be watching prices and time. A crash is improbable although not impossible